Oscar Nominations

The Oscar nomination list is out…and while I’m not going to bother with the tech awards, here’s my take on who gets the little naked gold man in the main categories. A lot of this depends on what kind of mood the voters are, and that’s impenetrable right now. I could see any number of sweeps. Romance? “Brokeback” breaks the bank. Politics? “Good Night”, Oscar. Traditional? The biopics take the prize. But I’m not going to hedge; I’ll make my pics, and let the chips fall. Picks after the jump…
1. Best Picture: “Brokeback Mountain,” “Capote,” “Crash,” “Good Night, and Good Luck,” “Munich.”
My pick: “Munich” is too dreary; “Brokeback” is daring, but may be a bit too daring…”Good Night, and Good Luck” takes the Oscar.
2. Actor: Philip Seymour Hoffman, “Capote”; Terrence Howard, “Hustle & Flow”; Heath Ledger, “Brokeback Mountain”; Joaquin Phoenix, “Walk the Line”; David Strathairn, “Good Night, and Good Luck.”
My pick: You’ve got three choices–Strathairn, the veteran character actor; Howard, the hip new actor; or Phoenix, doing the biopic turn. Howard, for as hip as he is, played an unsympathetic character, so he’s out. Strathairn or Phoenix? My guess is that it’s close, but Phoenix had a better portrayal of Cash than Strathairn had of Murrow, so Phoenix gets it.
3. Actress: Judi Dench, “Mrs. Henderson Presents”; Felicity Huffman, “Transamerica”; Keira Knightley, “Pride & Prejudice”; Charlize Theron, “North Country”; Reese Witherspoon, “Walk the Line.”
My pick: This one really comes down to Theron or Witherspoon. Either Theron wins it, and becomes a multiple award winner, or Witherspoon takes the biopic prize. My guess is that “Aeon Flux” still sticks in everyone’s craw, and so Witherspoon wins her first Oscar.
4. Supporting Actor: George Clooney, “Syriana”; Matt Dillon, “Crash”; Paul Giamatti, “Cinderella Man”; Jake Gyllenhaal, “Brokeback Mountain”; William Hurt, “A History of Violence.”
My pick: Again, a two-person race. Clooney endured exquisite physical agony while making “Syriana”; Gyllenhaal was the spurned lover in “Brokeback”. This will likely end up being a consolation prize. Either Clooney gets it because of his agony (and because “Good Night” was shut out) or Gyllenhaal gets it, because “Brokeback” was shut out. By the way, Clooney should be here twice–once for “Syriana”, and once for “Good Night”, playing the role of Fred Friendly. I wouldn’t have nominated Giamatti.
5. Supporting Actress: Amy Adams, “Junebug”; Catherine Keener, “Capote”; Frances McDormand, “North Country”; Rachel Weisz, “The Constant Gardener”; Michelle Williams, “Brokeback Mountain.”
My pick: This is the best one. Keener, Weisz, and Williams were all great. Here’s the thing–you nominate Williams, why wouldn’t you nominate Anne Hathaway? Keener was awesome as Harper Lee, but my nod has to go to Weisz, playing Tessa in “Gardener”. Such a heart-breaking performance.
6. Director: Ang Lee, “Brokeback Mountain”; Bennett Miller, “Capote”; Paul Haggis, “Crash”; George Clooney, “Good Night, and Good Luck.”; Steven Spielberg, “Munich.”
My pick: Lots of good choices here, and it’s a crapshoot. My guess? Haggis, for “Crash”. Or Clooney, for “Good Night”.


One response to “Oscar Nominations

  1. Good Work Matie