No sooner had I written the post below, when I got another email from another fellow Obama supporter wondering how I could be so sanguine about the primary ending so soon when every indication is that this campaign might go all the way to the Convention.
I’m on record as asking the super delegates to seriously consider settling the nomination after May 6th, when Indiana and North Carolina vote. However, there may be a super delegate weighing in sooner, rather than later.
No, it’s not Al Gore, or John Edwards, for that matter. It’s not even a person; it’s a number: cash on hand.
The first fundraising quarter of 2008 closed on Monday at midnight. Every indication is that Sen. Obama kept up his torrid fundraising pace. What isn’t anywhere as clear is whether Sen. Clinton kept up her pace, let alone kept up with him.
Remember the last week of February and first week of March, when the Clinton campaign claimed that they were bringing upwards of a million a day from online small donors? It’s been a long time since they’ve said anything about fundraising, let alone record-setting fundraising.
If anything, the financial news from her campaign is dire; the last few stories on that front indicate that her campaign is failing to pay past due bills, not that they’re flush with cash.
She may have raised somewhere around $20 million in March; however, my hunch is that most of that money will go to pay debts, which means she will either finish barely in the black, or even in the red. Either way, she’ll lack the funds to properly compete down the stretch in Pennsylvania, Indiana, and North Carolina.
That, more than any movement of superdelegates, will likely be the death blow to her campaign.